Credit: Al Waters/Capital News

Wilkinson surges, Watts sinks on social media as BC Liberals race heats up

Analyst says former favourite Dianne Watts has lost her lead in online engagement

  • Nov. 30, 2017 4:15 p.m.

For pundits and political analysts, party leadership races are difficult contests to predict. The most recent example is the 2017 federal NDP leadership race, won by Jagmeet Singh, a relative newcomer who was not on anyone’s radar. The BC Liberal leadership race, to be decided Feb. 3, is no exception: predicting a winner will be tricky, but there are new definitive ways to assess who is leading (p.s. – it’s not Dianne Watts).

Conventional wisdom among political watchers holds that Dianne Watts is the front-runner in the contest. Media commentators spend time analyzing speeches and trying to interpret the significance of each campaign stop. But social media metrics can reveal the state of the race and provide hard numbers on who is leading, and why.

The latest analysis from Social Media ROI, a social media and research firm based in Western Canada, indicates that former Surrey Mayor Diane Watts did hold a lead in social media “share of voice” and extent of media coverage in October and early November. But her lead has since evaporated.

VIDEO: BC Liberal leadership candidates fight to add warmth to ‘jobs’ message

Heralded as an outsider untainted by past Liberal government decisions, Watts is now trailing the ultimate insider: former BC Liberals president Andrew Wilkinson. Other high profile former ministers Mike De Jong and Todd Stone round out the top contenders, with Sam Sullivan and Michael Lee trailing well back in terms of profile and momentum.

SMROi’s analysis of the BC Liberal leadership race focuses on several indicators. The first is media exposure for each candidate, including both traditional and online impressions. Wilkinson leads all candidates in exposure, displacing Watts from her early campaign lead.

“Share of voice” is calculated by the proportion of mentions and the key words associated with each candidate. Wilkinson has recently taken the lead over Watts in terms of share of voice (38%). Watts, who led in October with a 35 per cent share of voice, has since dropped to a 21 per cent share. Stone is currently running third (20% share of voice), followed closely by de Jong, who has a smaller share of voice but commands a larger media presence than Stone. Lee and Sullivan are lagging well behind.

READ: BC Liberal leadership candidates debate different paths for party

The third indicator — the tone of each campaign — is measured by positive or negative sentiments being expressed. These can shift quickly, so they are one of the strongest predictors of ultimate victory. Current sentiment in BC toward Stone and de Jong is improving, while Watts and Wilkinson sentiment is declining.

The final indicator, “engagement,” is measured by the extent of interaction each candidate has with potential voters, including “sharing metrics” such as retweets and Facebook posts, and the gender profiles of followers. So far, the engagement data paints a mixed picture of the leadership race. Despite some emerging negative momentum for Watts and Wilkinson, they have an advantage over the other two major candidates, Stone and de Jong, because they currently have more female followers. Engaging women is vital to winning over the electorate, SMROI maintains.

Regardless of who wins, the leadership race has generated extensive media coverage and stimulated thousands of conversations, with an average of almost 500,000 impressions per day over the past month, peaking recently due to a leaders debate in Nanaimo (1.2 million impressions November 19). Most of those media impressions originated from the Vancouver area (61%), but there is also a strong media presence in areas where the party needs to make inroads if it is to stage a comeback, such as on Vancouver Island, including Victoria (18%) and Nanaimo (6%).

– Bruce Cameron, president, Social Media ROi


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Métis Flag flies in Trail on Louis Riel Day

Area students, officials and public attend flag raising at Trail City Hall

Early Trail borrowed a couple of names from the U.S.

Place Names: Connection between Trail and Butte, Montana

First Past the Post is the only option

Letter to the Editor by Dieter Bogs of Trail

Acid tainted vehicles from Trail spills, held for evidence

Contaminated vehicles are evidence in ICBC’s lawsuit against “negligent parties”

Kootenay Boundary swears in 7 new directors

Regional District of Kootenay Boundary swears in 7 new directors and 6 returning directors

Winter weather hits parts of Canada

As some parts of the country brace for cold, parts of B.C. remain warmer than 10 C

Canada’s health system commendable overall but barriers to care remain: UN

The United Nations says Canada’s health care system is “commendable” overall but vulnerable groups still face barriers to quality care.

Unique technology gives children with special needs more independent play

UVic’s CanAssist refined seven prototypes aided by $1.5M government contribution

Kelly Ellard’s boyfriend has statutory release revoked

Darwin Duane Dorozan had several parole infractions that found him ‘unmanageable’

Doctor’s note shouldn’t be required to prove you’re sick: poll

70% of Canadians oppose allowing employers to make you get a sick note

German-born B.C. man warns against a ‘yes’ vote on proportional representation

Agassiz realtor Freddy Marks says PR in his home country shows party elites can never be voted out

Fashion Fridays: 5 coats you need this winter!

Kim XO, lets you know the best online shopping tips during Fashion Fridays on the Black Press Media Network

Saskatchewan college honours memory of Humboldt Broncos coach

Darcy Haugan wore jersey No. 22 when he was a star player with the Briercrest College Clippers

Liberals to act quickly if Saturday midnight deal deadline breached: source

Oh Friday, Canadian Union of Postal Workers said it would not bring the latest offers to a vote of its members

Most Read