Rising household debt could be drag on long-term growth

CMHC warned that steady climb of household debt-to-GDP level has put Canada’s long-term economic growth prospects at risk.

Even debt-free Canadians could eventually feel a pinch from someone else’s maxed-out credit cards, suggests research presented to senior officials at the federal housing agency.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. board members received an update in March on the country’s credit and housing trends.

The presentation contained a warning: the steady climb of the household debt-to-GDP level had put Canada’s long-term economic growth prospects at risk.

The document pointed to a study that argued household debt accumulation eventually hampers economic growth over the longer term, eclipsing the nearer-term benefits of consumption.

The strong expansion of household spending, encouraged by a prolonged period of historically low borrowing rates, has created concerns over Canadians’ record-high debt loads.

It has also been a major driver of economic growth.

The Canadian Press obtained a copy of the CMHC presentation via the Access to Information Act. It was included in a “confidential” memo to deputy finance minister Paul Rochon.

Citing international research, the CMHC presentation points to an estimate that says a one percentage point increase in household debt-to-GDP tends to lower growth in a country’s real gross domestic product by 0.1 percentage points at least three years later.

The calculation, published in a January study by the Bank for International Settlements, was based on an average produced from the data of 54 countries from 1990 to 2015.

“Our results suggest that debt boosts consumption and GDP growth in the short run, with the bulk of the impact of increased indebtedness passing through the real economy in the space of one year,” said the BIS report.

“However, the long-run negative effects of debt eventually outweigh their short-term positive effects, with household debt accumulation ultimately proving to be a drag on growth.”

An accompanying chart in the CMHC presentation showed that between 2010 and 2016 Canada’s household debt-to-GDP level rose by more than five percentage points. The household debt-to-GDP ratio increased from almost 93 per cent to just over 101 per cent at the end of 2016, Statistics Canada says.

A reduction of even 0.1 percentage points in the country’s GDP can have an impact. For example, Canada saw year-over-year growth in real GDP last year of 1.3 per cent.

The chart listed eight developed countries and ranked Canada second, behind Australia, for having the biggest increase in household debt-to-GDP level over the six-year period.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Comments are closed

Just Posted

COVID-19: Should non-medical masks be mandatory in Canada?

New poll shows Canadians are divided on the rules around mandatory masks

Rosslanders celebrate Canada Day in style

Locals organized a museum scavenger hunt, a Mt. Roberts flag-raising ceremony and evening fireworks

Hwy 1 flooding causes massive delays on certain Arrow Lakes ferry routes

Motorists have been waiting around three hours to get on ferries

Rossland Museum and Discovery Centre expands operations online

The facility also opened back up to the public earlier in June

Rossland’s Sourdough Alley a ‘muddy collection of shacks’

Rossland’s earliest thoroughfare was once derided as a ‘muddy collection of shacks’

Man charged in Rideau Hall crash had rifle, shotguns, high-capacity magazine: RCMP

Hurren is accused of threatening to cause death or bodily harm to the prime minister

B.C. extends income assistance exemption for COVID-19

Provincial program to match Ottawa’s CERB, student pay

Broadway veteran Nick Cordero dies from coronavirus complications

During Cordero’s hospitalization, Kloots sent him daily videos of her and their 1-year-old son, Elvis,

Northern communities welcome tourists as province opens to in-B.C. travellers

Officials have asked British Columbians to be careful as they travel this summer

300 Cache Creek residents on evacuation alert due to flood risk as river rises

Heavy rainfall on Canada Day has river rising steadily, threatening 175 properties

First glimpse of Canada’s true COVID-19 infection rate expected mid-July

At least 105,000 Canadians have tested positive for COVID-19 since the coronavirus was identified

Most Read