Trail Times columnist’s prediction lacks investigation

Gwynne Dyer's thoughts on global warming miss the mark

In his most recent column (2011 ranks among history’s pivotal years, Trail Times Jan. 6), Gwynne Dyer claims that the “sea level is rising at twice the predicted speed, but nothing will be done about it for the next ten years.”

If we had accepted the economically disastrous restrictions on carbon dioxide (“CO2”) emissions proposed at the 2011 Durban climate conference, all would be well according to Dyer and his fellow prophets of doom.

However, such dire forebodings reveal a serious lack of investigative journalistic skills.

If CO2 were a driver of global warming, it would be reasonable to expect an acceleration of sea-level rise after the start of significant CO2 emissions in the 1940s. Needless to say, such an acceleration has not been observed.

During the post-glacial period 7,000 to 16,000 years ago, the oceans rose at rates up to 20 millimeters (“mm”) per year. The rate of sea-level rise has now decreased to less than 2 mm per year.

As reported by Professor Robert M. Carter (Climate: The Counter Consensus), “the best long-term tide gauge records measure a twentieth century average sea-level rise of 1.74 mm/year” (S.J. Holgate).  Recent measurements indicate a lower rate of 1.61 mm/year (G. Woppelmann, et al.). The UN’s IPCC(2007) “estimates a similar figure of 1.8 mm/year.”

The lack of an accelerated rate of sea level rise is supported by satellite measurements. In fact, such satellite measurements indicate a deceleration to a zero rate during the last few years.

Contrary to anecdotal evidence provided by the alarmists, allegedly in support of their dire forebodings, all is within natural variability.

Sea level measurements alone provide conclusive evidence for the rejection of the human-induced, global-warming narrative.

It is time to put pressure on our politicians to halt the squandering of tax dollars in the futile attempt to stop climate change and to apply such funds to real environmental, health and social problems.

Dr. Thorpe Watson



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